Monday, October 1, 2012

when stocks rallied today...did you put on the convergence trade?

We were waiting for the bond leg to outperform...and was stocks who made the trade.

When ES traded up to 1450 this morning, the divergence between stocks and 10yr yields was wider than it has been in 6 month.  The safe trade was selling both...the smart trade was selling stocks at 1450 and selling 10yr when ES was back at the high mode (133-19+ in ZN) which we expected from the spat of buybacks.  What was interesting was that treasuries refused to make new lows, even as stocks shot up another 10 ES points.  This indicates resistance that would be best overcome by selling at higher prices...perhaps the equiv of 133-27 in ZN (coincidentally the high print on month-end).  With the remainder of the week for trades to be set pre-NFP, I suspect selling the 30yr around 99-10 is the juicy trade that a lot of flow traders are waiting for (and i put myself in that crowd as well).

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