Friday, October 5, 2012


Like every other economist on the street, i'm baffeled by this number.  Things are NOT ok out there.  Its hard to find work, more and more companies are laying off workers, not hiring new workers, its incredibly hard to get a mortgage if you don't have perfect credit, ect.  I smell a rat in the data.  I don't mean to be a conspiracy theorist...but come on.

However, like every other day-trader out there...that doesn't really matter.  The only thing that matters...whats the next trade?  Since I was looking to sell treasuries on a pop...I won't be making a trade for a while.

Update via ZeroHedge:  The unemployment rate drop was due to massive jump in part-time workers, which just happens to be exactly 66.666666%  (thats 2/3's) of the household survey number of +837k.  The conspiracy theorist are having a field day with this report.

All that aside...I have 2 comments.  First, the US (and global) economy is not well.  We should see a deleveraging recession that will last for a number of years.  Second is that I don't trade the economy.  I trade leveraged products trying to make a handful of ticks a couple times a week.  I don't see a trade to initiate right here, so i'm just going to sit back and let the market do its thing and wait for a high probability opportunity. Perhaps that means buying 30yr bonds after the 30yr auction next week.  I see no rush to put on a trade from these levels.

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