Monday, October 22, 2012

Staying 2 sided - what is the argument against my long 10yr position?

Just playing devil's advocate on my own position (long 2 units of 10yr notes), I see a few factors which are bearish for 10yr prices.

1)  upcoming 5yr and 7yr supply
2)  potential for Fed to disappoint (no mention of additional Treasury QE) on wednesday
3)  potential mode shift in ZN to 132-03

Factors 2 and 3 are the most significant.  I've read a handful of bank strategists say they don't think the Fed will specifically mention additional UST purchases in Wedneday's statement.  Of course, nobody things they won't continue some kind of UST QE after twist ends...but that decision / comunication will most likely come from Dec 12's meeting.  Still...there are some in the market who will be dissapointed on wednesday if the Fed doesn't act or communcate such future action...and so that is a bearish force for UST.

A ZN mode shift down to 132-03 would also lower the bottom of the bell curve to 131-23 (implies 10yr notes @ 98-00).

My net opinion is still bullish on UST, but I won't be taking a position into Wednesday's FOMC meeting because of the binary risk.  I may trade in the market after the announcement though.

Watching how ZN trades around here should provide some clarity on the mode shift situation.  Seems today is yet another day when I can't be complacent about my position.

govttrader out...

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