1) The first trade in the early morning is always the best trade..hesitating when the model has a strong signal, and then waiting for another chance at the same entry tends to be a losing proposition, as the existence of the second opportunity decreases the strength of the signal.
2) Supply imbalance conditions are strong forces that are
clearly visible. If there is any doubt, then the probability that the
condition actually exists decreases.
3) Don't be afraid of switching the direction of your trade (going from short to long) if your read of the market changes.
When the market is random and tethered to fair value, then buy the
low...sell the high...be flat in the middle...and always watch for a
vertical move from the low to the high (or vice versa) to be an
5) Initiating new trends are the highest
probability trades in all trading (90%)...these should be played with
maximum size and leverage.
6) The first trade in the early morning is always the best trade...so first learn rule #1 and wake up before 4am
Here is the guts of the model
1) When tethered to value, fade movements away from the center of
value, and get flat at the center of value, constantly re-evaluating
volatility around the center of value..
Rule 1a) Constantly re-evaluate if the center of value has shifted and trade accordingly
Rule 2) Always be monitoring for the transition FROM tethered TO trending.
Rule 3) When trending, only have positions in the direction of the trend.
4) When a new trend is identified, the outer edge of value will rarely
be offered. This requires aggressive trading behavior (at the bulb of
the "P" or "b"). The important point is to get on the trend at all
Rule 5) When in a trending position, stay on until the trend is over, often for a minimum of 24 hrs.