Monday, October 22, 2012

Weekly ZN mode - 132-01+ --> 132-03+ and coiling

When a price region repeatedly reigns in the market like a spring over a number of days, its time to switch sensors to maximum sensitivity.   The longer the market coils around a single price, like it has the last 3 trading days, the larger and more violent will be the move out of that trading range. 

Its for this reason that I will only initiate a position from the outside edge of a bell curve.  Part of me thinks I should be more patient and willing to risk either a flat day or a small loss day to make more...but the other part of me is ultra risk averse (that's fear and greed...battling it out inside my own head), and only want to put on, and be in, home runs (as in, if i don't have maximum conviction in a trade, I either don't put it on, or I exit as soon as possible).  Perhaps I should be a little more patient with my exits (with a specific stop loss after i've lost conviction).  Something to think about.  

For the moment, I still think that ZN @ 131-24 will be THE price to buy if offered in the near future.  I'm not so sure i'll get the chance to buy it, and i may buy before that if i see a buying pattern before i see that price, but just to be clear, 131-24 looks like a golden level right now.  I still want to find a way to get long within the premise of my model.

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