Thursday, October 25, 2012
Lets start it up again
So where does the market stand now? Value has been setup lower today in UST. After the weekly mode @ 132-04 attracted the market one time, today's high mode @ 131-27 has pulled the market back to its center of value. A similar situation has occurred in stocks as 1407 has acted like a center of gravity for the past 3 days. It isn't clear yet which way the UST breakout will go, so for now, I'm planning on waiting for the next move away from the mode to determine what my next trade will be. On the 6 month timeframe, everything other than oil has converged...so no good info there.
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do you trade MP toward valleys/holes in a developing bell curve of the cumulative market profile? for example, you take your 5 day time frame where 2 days are within a range, and then there's a gap or quick trade down to a lower consolidation level. SO maybe daily the MP is bell shaped but the 5-day cumulated MP has two bulbs, and is more "B" like, or a "p" on top and "b" on bottom. Would you try to exploit a move to the middle to cover the thin/ gap area? if so from what level?
ReplyDeleteHonestly, thats too generic a question...its easier to talk about an example with charts. I've seen "B" days where the market ends up gravitating to one of the centers...and other days when the market ends up making a breakout. The specifics of the price action are just too important to ignore. Today just happened to be one of those days where the intraday mode ended up reigning in the market (this happens about 70% of the time).
ReplyDeleteIn today's example, the market first moved to the bottom of the weekly bell curve. That told us to watch the weekly mode to reign in the market. Once that happened, we needed to return to focusing on the intraday bell curve...which ultimately reigned in the market for the remainder of the day.
Like anything else in the market, you need to think on your feet in real-time and adjust to the patterns as they develop, as no 2 patterns will ever be exactly the same.
yeah i figured it would be too generic. oh well.
Deletealso, i have followed you for a few months now. how is your performance in rough numbers? seems like you win on balance but hard to tell magnitude. you are also way more patient than i probably would be.