Monday, October 22, 2012

Just bought 2nd unit of 10yr notes @ 98-10 --> Position Avg cost 98-11+ Long 2 units

This is the bottom edge of the 2nd bell curve.  Unless something has fundamentally changed, the ZN high mode of 132-07 should reign in the market at least one time.  This should mean approx 98-18 on 10yr notes.

For those readers who would argue that the upcoming 7yr supply will weigh down the market: my reply would indicate that 7yr supply hasn't weighed down the market why should this week be any different? 

Also, the recent divergence between stocks and bonds has become even more pronounced today.  Until we get new information, or drastically different price action, I want to be long UST, and so i am.

govttrader out...

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