A former sell-side investment bank US Treasury flow trader, now a private prop trader.
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Saturday, October 6, 2012
Jobs report mystery solved
In the household survey (which indicated +873k people found work) 582k of the +873 (exactly 66.6666%) people said they found part time work. Even if this data is clean, what the survey questions don't screen for is...if you lost a full time job and subsequently "found" a part time job (aka...you were reduced from full-time to part-time)....that counts as a job created (+1)..but in my mind, that should = 1/2 of a job lost (-0.5)...or at the best (0). So, if there was a sizable move of employees from full-time to part-time....that move will be counted statistically as a gain in employment (yup...thats crazy talk). That seems to be what we saw from today's survey. So, even if you believe that the data was clean...it still was a bad number.
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