Friday, August 24, 2012

Monthly Cycle - rally into month-end for trend?

2 days ago we identified a new short term initiated bull trend in treasuries.  Yesterday would have been the first day where the trend initiating traders could / would have taken profits.  However, the market has continued to make higher lows and higher highs (classic Dow theory definition of a trend). There has been no meaningful giveback on any significant volume, so we can only conclude that these buyers are still withholding bonds from the market, keeping the bull trend in place.






















This means that the bond market can continue to absorb additional selling over time, price and volume.  With next Friday being month-end, accompanied by Fed POMO buying every single day, it is conceivable for this trend to continue into month-end over the course of next week.  This argues for continued buying treasuries on pullbacks for the immediate future.

Fed POMO schedule
August 27, 2012
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 – 08/15/2042 $1.50 - $2.00 billion
August 28, 2012
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2020 – 08/15/2022 $4.50 - $5.50 billion
August 29 , 2012
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 08/31/2018 – 08/15/2020 $4.25 - $5.00 billion
August 30, 2012
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 – 08/15/2042 $1.50 - $2.00 billion

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