Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Aaaahhh!!! I overslept!!! And I missed the trade!!!

So, the bond market did stabilize overnight thru the Tokyo session right into the London open....after which the opportunity to sell the top of the new value zone presented itself (high trade 133-24+/25 in ZN @ 5:45 AM NY time).  I mentioned last night that if this market development occurred (stable overnight market, followed by drift to the top of value zone), then I would be looking to sell the top of the new value zone in ZN starting @ 133-22.  Well, the market bounced off this zone and has since traded back to the center of value (whole trade took about an hour).   The model dictates getting flat when it gets back to the center of value (133-18+ in ZN which occurred at 6:30 AM NY time).  As the easy money has been made, there is no further trade here. 

Unfortunately, I slept thru it poo poo.  The other day I mentioned that having a gut call for a trade that has no model support "stings" because we choose not to participate.  Well, having a model trade work perfectly (6 ticks in ZN....that's a 12% return using current CME margin requirements), but to have missed it because you overslept, that's a stab right to the heart.

Its days like today when I consider moving from New York to London so I can be awake during my model's operating time zone.  I've resisted this, because I've never really enjoyed living in London (i've spent several weeks in various corporate housing units during my various stints trading in London when I worked for my previous investment bank employer).  The food is blah, the weather is downright depressing, and the way they build apartments feels so claustrophobic to me.  They put a door in every room!!  Haven't the English ever heard of an open floor plan?  And the bathrooms...always so tiny...with strange showers where water seems to spray everywhere.  Don't get me started on the sinks with separate spouts for hot and cold water...god forbid I desire "warm" water to wash my hands.  Nope, its either freezing cold from one spout, or scalding hot from the other.  Here in the US, they managed to combine the spouts into one, where the water mixes, and thus presents a range of temperature choices.  Yeah, I had a bad experience when i scalded myself when washing my hands.  Really, I'm fine though.  And don't even get me started on cable TV...

govt trader out....

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