Thursday, August 9, 2012

Going into the 16bln 30yr UST bond auction at the micro value area floor

Ok, for those who don't compare trading with gambling...we are at today's value area floor (133-06+ in ZN), and thus, where shorts should cover.  There was just a small bout of 30yr selling as last minute auction players sell the market with the sole intention of buying back their shorts by bidding in the auction...and praying for a tail.  What are the odds on this bet...50/50.   Personally...i don't like those odds...they might be better than Vegas...but i only gamble when the odds are 80/20 in my favor or better.  Bond volume is relatively, low for an auction day, so that improves the probability of an auction tail to 55/45 (in favor of tail)...better than Vegas...but for a binary event...i'll let the dealers play this one.

For the RM community out there....not a horrible auction concession these last couple weeks ehh??

good luck....govttrader out

No comments:

Post a Comment