Going into the 16bln 30yr UST bond auction at the micro value area floor

Ok, for those who don't compare trading with gambling...we are at today's value area floor (133-06+ in ZN), and thus, where shorts should cover.  There was just a small bout of 30yr selling as last minute auction players sell the market with the sole intention of buying back their shorts by bidding in the auction...and praying for a tail.  What are the odds on this bet...50/50.   Personally...i don't like those odds...they might be better than Vegas...but i only gamble when the odds are 80/20 in my favor or better.  Bond volume is relatively, low for an auction day, so that improves the probability of an auction tail to 55/45 (in favor of tail)...better than Vegas...but for a binary event...i'll let the dealers play this one.

For the RM community out there....not a horrible auction concession these last couple weeks ehh??

good luck....govttrader out