Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Does Market Profile see a new trend in treasuries?

In short...no.  In order for the treasury market to initiate a new trend, a few symptoms need to appear.  A large levered buyer (or seller) needs to emerge and completely dominate all other market participants.  When this happens, treasuries will break away from their stocks vs bonds correlation.

Today, treasuries followed stocks pretty much in lockstep.  The conclusion from this price action is that the treasury market is still tethered to a center of value.

Today's profile was best described as a "fat D."  Days like this don't provide a clearly identifiable center of value....rather, they provide a range...somewhere in the range of 132-11 --> 132-19.  Once again, come the London open around 2-3am is when we should have more clarity.  Being awake for the London session should be a required prerequisite to trade this market tomorrow.

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