Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Doubling down after retail sales

So the retail sales headline print came in better than expected, S&P futures popped up 5 points, and 10Y notes sold off 5 bps.  On the stocks vs bonds chart, 10Y yields have melted up into stocks, more than stocks have rallied.  This indicates that some bond market participants have sold treasuries in the hole out of fear that QE3 is now off the table.  However, the same move has not taken place in stocks.

With economic optimism data coming out at 10am in 40 minutes, and the Fed POMO buyback of 5bln 10Y notes at 11am, I am doubling down on my long treasury position, buying 2 units of ZN @ 133-07.  It will take 10 hours of sideways activity down here to shift the mode again.  I have a hard time seeing that happen..but you never know.

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