Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Stocks should have sold off by now...so i covered

To start, I just bought back my 1 unit of ES contracts at 1377 (short originated at 1382).

If there was going to be a major reversal of Fridays move in ES, it should have happened by now.  Comments came out of Germany that put a damper on the new ECB rescue attempt.  While the market shows no signs of strength...it isn't falling apart either.  Its unlikely for new significant positions to be initiated in front of tomorrow's FOMC statement.

Market profile would suggest that we are hanging at the bottom of the bell curve in a non-trending market amid very low volume...and so would suggest buying the market here, with an intention of getting flat back at the center of value, which seems to be around 1381.  However, this is a very tight bell curve (only 11 S&P points from top to bottom).  If I had to have a position, I would buy the bottom of the bell curve here (1375.5 in ES) with the expectation that I could sell that position out at 1380.  However, I don't have to have a position, so I'll stay flat for now.

Ona longer 2-week term view, i'm bearish on ES in general.  However, trading is a business, and its not my job to trade what my gut feels.  Its my job to trade when the probability is greater than 80%.  Does it sting sometimes when my gut is right and I don't participate? Of course it does.  Have I tried trading my gut in the past and gotten burned?  Of course I have.  This is why I attempt to be disciplined now.  Experience is a bitch...but at least we don't forget those lessons.

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