Finally, the German rebuke we've been waiting for

 9:11 AM NY time Bloomberg headlines
*GERMAN MINISTRY SAYS THERE ARE NO SECRET TALKS ON BANK LICENSE
*GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SEES NO NEED TO GIVE ESM BANK LICENSE
*GERMAN MINISTRY SAYS NOT HOLDING TALKS ON BANK LICENSE FOR ESM
*GERMAN SAVINGS BANKS GROUP REJECTS BANK LICENSE FOR ESM

So finally German bankers have spoken to say "NO" to Mario Draghi, and his idea of the ECB printing more money and buying Spanish and Italian sovereign debt.  This means that, NO, the ECB cannot finance Spanish and Italian spending by priming up the printing press.  I watched a movie the other night, where a group of Spaniards and Italians were criticizing Americans for always working so hard and not enjoying life.  What these Italians forgot to mention was that they enjoy life so much  by spending money they don't have, and then criticize Americans for being so "stingy" with life.   While I agree that the Americans that I know tend to work too hard (wall street tends to do that to a person), I think the Spaniards, Italians, Greeks and French could take a lesson from those who don't spend what they don't have.  Just Say'n.   So anyway, this should be negative for stocks (ES), and bullish for US bonds (ZN).  The bond market didn't dip enough overnight for me to buy it, so my only position is that small short position in ES.  The only hope for ES now is for the FOMC to announce QE3 at tomorrows 2:15 PM FOMC statement.  Personally, I doubt that will happen, but who knows.

So, lets take a step back and return to market profile.

In treasuries (ZN), a mode has not been established yet (we haven't spent enough time and volume at any single price area). We wanted to buy a dip, but the market did not dip, it has just been floating up up up.  In stocks (ES), the overnight market was remarkably stable, but the cash session hasn't opened yet, so we still need to wait and see what will happen between 9:30 and 10:00.  I'm hanging onto my short position for now, hoping for something in the neighborhood of 1360.  Normally, after a buying day (Friday), when the market stabilizes for 2 days in a row (Monday and today), the buying day gets "undone" as the fresh buyers dump their stocks after not getting "satisfaction."  However, that is not an 80% probability type of trade...its more like 55%...which is not good enough to trade on in large size.  While I "expect and hope" for stocks (ES) to selloff...market profile is neutral on this trade, which is why my position is so small.

more later....good luck trading